Tesla’s Elon Musk shares some obvious parallels with Henry Ford. Musk is, of course, an automaker, and likeFordhelped grow a company from small beginnings to a dominant force in the industry. Musk also shares controversial right-wing politics, and uses a media outlet he bought to spread them – but I’ll avoid going any further into those points to avoid derailing things too hard.
One area where the two differ is that while Ford was successful in building an affordable car for the masses, the Model T, Musk has given up on the idea of a truly affordable EV, preferring to focus onrobotaxisand Tesla’s existing lineup. It’s time for some rival automaker to step up, although I’m worried we may still be years away from a breakthrough, barring a decision to let Chinese vehicles flood every market.
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The disappointment of existing EV options
Too expensive, too niche, or too disruptive
The Tesla Model 3 is sometimes talked about as an electric Model T, but it was never going to achieve the same impact. Even in 2019, the lowest price the car achieved was $35,000, equivalent to over $43,000 today. The 1908 Model T, in contrast, sold for $825, which adjusts to roughly $29,000 now. That’s closer to the price of a Honda Civic Hybrid, whereas a Model 3 is more expensive than some BMWs. It’s safe to say that an EV for the masses should at least be affordable for a college grad who lucks out in the job market. Ideally, of course, it would be affordable to a wider audience than that.
There are cheaper EVs than the Model 3, but most are still over $30,000, and the one non-used option under that limit is the base trim of the Nissan Leaf, costing $28,140. That could hypothetically be a genuine Model T candidate, except that it’s capped at 149 miles (about 240 kilometers) of range. That’s not good value for people unless they can always plug in at home, and even then, it might put many long-distance trips out of reach. 200 miles (322 kilometers) is a more realistic minimum, especially for the car-oriented infrastructure of the US and Canada. I should know, since trying to drive my Leaf from Austin to San Antonio and back inevitably required a 40-minute charging stop.
The Tesla Model 3 is sometimes talked about as an electric Model T, but it was never going to achieve the same impact.
A more modest complaint is that a lot of EVs fall into niche categories. Indeed many of them, like the Hyundai Kona Electric and Chevy Equinox EV, are actually compact SUVs. In the gas world, cheap cars are more likely to be straight-up compacts, sub-compacts, and sedans, since many people don’t want or need to pay for the extra storage space. The tendency towards larger designs is a sacrifice to accommodate a big, inefficient battery pack – more on that later.
The most obvious answer to the Model T problem would be to remove barriers to Chinese brands like BYD, which sells some cars for under $10,000 in its domestic market. That would risk much larger trouble, however – apart from wrecking the European and North American auto industries, China has substantially lower labor standards, which is actually part of how it keeps costs down. In December 2024, for instance, Chinese workers building a Brazilian BYD factory were found in “slavery-like conditions” (viaReuters), and the company has also been accused of ignoring the threat of forced Uyghur labor in its aluminum supply chain (perHuman Rights Watch). Western automakers aren’t without their own issues, but I think most people would rather the balance tip in favor of humane treatment. Henry Ford improved labor conditions in some ways, despite being a longtime holdout against unions.
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The fundamental barrier
What’s holding everything back?
If you’ve been following the EV industry at all, you know that the main issue is the production cost of batteries. The lithium-ion packs for any car are expensive at the moment – if you ever have to replace them without insurance, prices can range from the thousands to the tens of thousands. In a new vehicle, that hit is automatically passed down to the consumer, making the upfront barrier higher despite the maintenance and energy consumption benefits in the long run.
I’m not really optimistic we’ll see a Model T moment anytime soon.
Research is underway to improve the situation, but when you look past the hype of occasional discoveries, no technological breakthrough is looming. Simply put, automakers will have to keep refining EVs wherever they can, hoping to squeeze every last watt out of the packs in their lower-cost models.
For that reason, I’m not really optimistic we’ll see a Model T moment anytime soon. The situation might actually get worse, in the short term – with the US targeting Canada, China, and Mexico with tariffs, it’s hard to see production costs going anywhere but up, translating into even more sighs when people browse the EV sticker prices at a dealership.
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